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A weekly look at where mortgage interest rates are headed. A weekly Economic Calendar is also included.

Market Commentary

Last week's anxieties from Ankara (Capital of Republic of Turkey) remain the primary theme in global markets and the related flight-to-quality sentiment (the action of investors moving their capital away from riskier investments to safer ones) has supported Treasuries. 10-year yields dipped as low as 2.848% as Turkey’s central bank offered stop-gap measures deemed inadequate to stem the selloff in the lira that has brought the currency to a record low – touching 7.236 lira for every US dollar and extending contagion fears. The market has gone from responding to strong inflation data (July’s core-CPI read was the highest yearly print since 2008) by shifting from a bear flattening bias, to a pure flattening bias, and concluded with a bias to ignore.

The economic data calendar in the week ahead will hold more than last week. Monday holds no economic releases. Tuesday again is a light day with only the Import Price Index scheduled for release. Wednesday is a trifecta with several economic releases that speak to consumers, businesses, and economic growth. Thursday is a standard release day with Initial Jobless Claims which is released weekly, followed by Housing Starts and the Philadelphia Fed Index. Friday holds the usual suspects in the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence report and finishes the day with Leading Indicators.

Economic Calendar for the week of 8/13/2018 to 8/17/2018:

Monday: N/A
Tuesday: Import Price Index
Wednesday: Retail Sales, Productivity & Cost, Empire Mfg. Index, Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization, Business Inventories, and TICS Data
Thursday: Initial Jobless Claims, Housing Starts, and Philadelphia Fed Index
Friday: University of Michigan Consumer Confidence and Leading Indicators


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